Two Forces Re-Shaped Housing Affordability in 2019, According to First American Real House Price Index
October 28, 2019, Santa Ana, Calif.
First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF), a leading global provider of title insurance, settlement services and risk solutions for real estate transactions, today released the August 2019 First American Real House Price Index (RHPI). The RHPI measures the price changes of single-family properties throughout the U.S. adjusted for the impact of income and interest rate changes on consumer house-buying power over time at national, state and metropolitan area levels. Because the RHPI adjusts for house-buying power, it also serves as a measure of housing affordability.
August 2019 Real House Price Index
Real house prices decreased 1.3 percent between July 2019 and August 2019.
Real house prices declined 5.9 percent between August 2018 and August 2019.
Consumer house-buying power, how much one can buy based on changes in income and interest rates, increased 2.5 percent between July 2019 and August 2019, and increased 14.8 percent year over year.
Median household income has increased 2.6 percent since August 2018 and 57.6 percent since January 2000.
Real house prices are 18.6 percent less expensive than in January 2000.
While unadjusted house prices are now 8.3 percent above the housing boom peak in 2006, real, house-buying power-adjusted house prices remain 42.0 percent below their 2006 housing boom peak.
Chief Economist Analysis: Real House Prices Fall 6 Percent Year Over Year
“Understanding the dynamics that influence consumer house-buying power, how much home one can buy based on changes in income and interest rates, provides a helpful perspective on the housing market. When incomes rise, consumer house-buying power increases. When mortgage rates or nominal house prices rise, consumer house-buying power declines,” said Mark Fleming. “Our Real House Price Index (RHPI) uses consumer house-buying power to adjust nominal house prices, offering insight into affordability.
“For example, according to our RHPI, real house prices decreased nearly 6 percent year over year in August, marking a significant gain in affordability. Since August 2018, mortgage rates decreased 0.93-percentage points and household income grew by 2.6 percent – both improving house-buying power and affordability,” said Fleming. “However, rising nominal house prices reduce affordability, and nominal house price appreciation grew by 8.0 percent compared with one year ago. Ultimately, this continual “tug-of-war” between house-buying power and nominal house prices determines the fate of real house prices.”
Housing Affordability in 2019 Transformed by Dynamic Duo – Mortgage Rates and Income Growth
“In 2019, falling mortgage rates helped create a housing market that behaved very different than the housing market in the second half of 2018. Mortgage rates began their descent in December 2018 and have continued to fall through August, significantly influencing affordability,” said Fleming. “According to our RHPI, the 0.85 percentage point drop in mortgage rates from January 2019 through August 2019 increased affordability by 9.7 percent. That translates to a $40,200 improvement in house-buying power in just eight months.
“As rates have fallen in 2019, the economy has continued to perform well also, resulting in a tight labor market and wage growth. Wage growth pushes household incomes upward, which were 1.5 percent higher in August compared with January,” said Fleming. “The growth in household income increased consumer house-buying power by 1.5 percent, pushing house-buying power up an additional $5,600.
“During this same time, nominal house prices increased by 5.7 percent, reducing affordability. In January 2019, a family with the median household income in the U.S. could afford to buy a $373,900 house. By August, that home had appreciated to $395,000, an increase of $21,100. But, house-buying power increased by $45,800 over the same eight-month time period,” said Fleming. “The improvement in house-buying power was more than double the $21,100 increase in house prices. This year, through August, home buyers’ purchasing power has far outpaced the appreciation of the homes they are buying, so home buyers were in a better position in August, despite the increase in nominal house prices.
The Future of Affordability
“In 2019, the dynamic duo of lower mortgage rates and rising incomes overcame the negative impact of rising house price appreciation on affordability. Indeed, affordability reached its highest point since January 2018,” said Fleming. “Focusing on nominal house price changes alone as an indication of changing affordability, or even the relationship between nominal house price growth and income growth, overlooks what matters more to potential buyers – surging house-buying power driven by the dynamic duo of mortgage rates and income growth. And, we all know from experience, you buy what you can afford to pay per month.”
August Real House Price State Highlights
There are no states with a year-over-year increase in the RHPI.
The five states with the greatest year-over-year decrease in the RHPI are: New Mexico (-11.1 percent), California (-10.5 percent), North Dakota (-10.1 percent), Wyoming (-9.8 percent), and Colorado (-9.1 percent).
August 2019 Real House Price Local Market Highlights
Among the Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) tracked by First American, there are no markets with a year-over-year increase in the RHPI.
Among the Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) tracked by First American, the five markets with the greatest year-over-year decrease in the RHPI are: San Jose, Calif. (-15.8 percent), San Francisco (-12.4 percent), Portland, Ore. (-11.3 percent), Seattle (-10.7 percent), and Los Angeles (-10.4 percent).
The next release of the First American Real House Price Index will take place the week of November 25, 2019 for September 2019 data.
The methodology statement for the First American Real House Price Index is available at http://www.firstam.com/economics/real-house-price-index.
Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this page are those of First American’s Chief Economist, do not necessarily represent the views of First American or its management, should not be construed as indicating First American’s business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the First American Economics team attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. © 2019 by First American. Information from this page may be used with proper attribution.
About First American
First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF) is a leading provider of title insurance, settlement services and risk solutions for real estate transactions that traces its heritage back to 1889. First American also provides title plant management services; title and other real property records and images; valuation products and services; home warranty products; property and casualty insurance; banking, trust and wealth management services; and other related products and services. With total revenue of $5.7 billion in 2018, the company offers its products and services directly and through its agents throughout the United States and abroad. In 2019, First American was named to the Fortune 100 Best Companies to Work For® list for the fourth consecutive year. More information about the company can be found at www.firstam.com.