Housing Market Potential Dips Slightly from 13-Year High, According to First American Potential Home Sales Model
If you think modestly higher mortgage rates will substantially cool a hot spring home-buying season, you’re overlooking a key driver of housing demand – demographics, says Chief Economist Mark Fleming
April 16, 2021, Santa Ana, Calif.
First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF), a leading global provider of title insurance, settlement services and risk solutions for real estate transactions, today released First American’s proprietary Potential Home Sales Model for the month of March 2021.
March 2021 Potential Home Sales
- Potential existing-home sales decreased to a 6.26 million seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), a -0.1 percent month-over-month decrease.
- This represents a 79.7 percent increase from the market potential low point reached in February 1993.
- The market potential for existing-home sales increased 23.6 percent compared with a year ago, a gain of 1,197,267 (SAAR) sales. Year-over-year comparisons will be very large in the months to come, as the housing market came to a halt last year at this time when the pandemic shut down the economy. Housing rebounded sharply in the summer.
- Currently, potential existing-home sales is 527,022 million (SAAR), or 7.8 percent below the pre-recession peak of market potential, which occurred in April 2006.
Market Performance Gap
- The market for existing-home sales outperformed its potential by 5.6 percent or an estimated 348,600 (SAAR) sales.
- The market performance gap increased by an estimated 146,600 (SAAR) sales between February 2021 and March 2021.
Chief Economist Analysis: Millennials, Still Low Rates Fueling Demand
“After hitting its highest point since 2007 last month, housing market potential fell modestly in March, according to our Potential Home Sales Model. Housing market potential remains near the 13-year high point, but the severely limited supply of homes for sale and an uptick in mortgage rates pulled market potential for existing-home sales off its February peak,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. “Annual comparisons of housing market potential will be very large for the next few months, as the housing market came to a halt last year at this time when the pandemic shut down the economy. However, housing market potential is 16.5 percent higher than two years ago and will remain strong due to a demographic-fueled shift away from renting to home owning driven by millennials aging into homeownership and accelerated by still low mortgage rates.”
What’s the Deal with Rising Mortgage Rates?
“On a month-over-month basis, mortgage rates increased by the greatest amount since February 2018, contributing to a $13,000 decline in house-buying power nationally. Historically and relative to one year ago, mortgage rates remain low,” said Fleming. “Yet, for homeowners who locked in rates below 3 percent, modestly higher rates in a historically low inventory environment may disincentivize some from selling their homes thus preventing more supply from reaching the market. In March, the dip in house-buying power resulted in a decline of 55,600 potential home sales.
“Potential home buyers ready to make the switch from renting to owning may need to adjust their price points given modestly higher mortgage rates. But rates aren’t everything. Buying a home is a lifestyle choice and a large cohort of millennials are reaching prime buying age, and the new normal likely includes more work-from-home options, giving potential home buyers more geographic flexibility, helping to boost home sales,” said Fleming. “In March, household formation contributed to a gain of approximately 4,300 potential home sales. This demographic tailwind is expected to persist.
“Adding fuel to the housing demand fire is the increase in the personal savings rate, which climbed to an all-time high in April and remains above the historical average as pandemic-driven restrictions have limited discretionary spending,” said Fleming. “For young people that are still employed, increased savings can be used as a down payment, which is typically the biggest hurdle for first-time home buyers.”
The Problem is Supply
“Existing homeowners today are sitting on record amounts of equity, which could be used to move out and move up. Rising house appreciation contributed to a gain of approximately 33,300 potential home sales in March. However, while many homeowners may want to use their equity to buy something bigger and better, they first must find something to buy,” said Fleming. “The fear of not finding something to buy in an environment of historically low inventory is one reason tenure length reached a high of just over 10.5 years. In March, homeowners staying put and a lack of new construction collectively contributed to a loss of just over 6,100 potential home sales.”
Spring Market Housing Market Will Remain Hot
“While the market potential for existing-home sales slipped off its 13-year high, the housing market remains hot as the spring home-buying season hits its stride. According to the most recent NAR existing-home sales report, homes in February were selling at the fastest pace on record, and house price appreciation is accelerating,” said Fleming. “The rapid pace of sales and rising prices indicate that the month-over-month moderation is due to the lack of supply, not a lack of demand. The issue is inventory – you can’t buy what’s not for sale.
“However, as widespread vaccinations prompt the economic recovery to pick up speed, consumers and lenders will likely grow more confident. Similarly, a safer environment may prompt equity-rich homeowners who were unwilling to open their homes to showings during the peak of the pandemic, to finally put their homes on the market,” said Fleming. “More supply will help ease this super sellers’ market. But, if you think modestly higher mortgage rates will substantially cool a hot spring home-buying season, you’re overlooking a key driver of housing demand: demographics.”
The next Potential Home Sales Model will be released on May 20, 2021 with April 2021 data.
About the Potential Home Sales Model
Potential home sales measures existing-homes sales, which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate based on the historical relationship between existing-home sales and U.S. population demographic data, homeowner tenure, house-buying power in the U.S. economy, price trends in the U.S. housing market, and conditions in the financial market. When the actual level of existing-home sales are significantly above potential home sales, the pace of turnover is not supported by market fundamentals and there is an increased likelihood of a market correction. Conversely, seasonally adjusted, annualized rates of actual existing-home sales below the level of potential existing-home sales indicate market turnover is underperforming the rate fundamentally supported by the current conditions. Actual seasonally adjusted annualized existing-home sales may exceed or fall short of the potential rate of sales for a variety of reasons, including non-traditional market conditions, policy constraints and market participant behavior. Recent potential home sale estimates are subject to revision to reflect the most up-to-date information available on the economy, housing market and financial conditions. The Potential Home Sales model is published prior to the National Association of Realtors’ Existing-Home Sales report each month.
Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this page are those of First American’s Chief Economist, do not necessarily represent the views of First American or its management, should not be construed as indicating First American’s business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the First American Economics team attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. © 2021 by First American. Information from this page may be used with proper attribution.
About First American
First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF) is a leading provider of title insurance, settlement services and risk solutions for real estate transactions that traces its heritage back to 1889. First American also provides title plant management services; title and other real property records and images; valuation products and services; home warranty products; banking, trust and wealth management services; and other related products and services. With total revenue of $7.1 billion in 2020, the company offers its products and services directly and through its agents throughout the United States and abroad. In 2021, First American was named to the Fortune 100 Best Companies to Work For® list for the sixth consecutive year. More information about the company can be found at www.firstam.com.